Real Estate Forecast 2024: Housing Market Trends & Predictions for Buyers and Sellers
It’s been a busy year in real estate, and I couldn’t be happier with the progress! As we approach the end of the third quarter, I wanted to take a moment to provide an update on the latest developments in the Greater Phoenix housing market.
The market continues to experience its ups and downs, with buyers now gaining some ground while sellers face increasing challenges. Mortgage rates recently dipped slightly, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady and softer-than-expected inflation data. While this is a positive sign for buyers, experts caution that demand may not see a major boost just yet, as rates remain relatively high.
A Buyer’s Market Emerges with Cromford Index Data
The Cromford Market Index (CMI) reflects a changing real estate market. Recent data shows the index dipping below 100 in several Phoenix suburbs, signaling a buyer’s market. This aligns with a recent 11% rise in listings and slower demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers across most price ranges. In mid-range homes ($300,000 – $500,000), buyers benefit from concessions, while the luxury segment ($1M+) remains strong in select areas like Paradise Valley, where the market has moved back in favor of sellers. Sellers should act before holiday market slowdowns.
- Mid-Range Homes ($300,000 – $500,000): Sellers are still commanding close to asking prices, but buyers are now securing larger concessions, including price reductions and incentives.
- Luxury Homes ($1M+): High-end buyers, less affected by mortgage rates, are becoming more aggressive in their negotiations as they focus on securing the right property. Despite overall market fluctuations, the luxury segment, especially homes over $2 million, remains strong. In fact, areas like Paradise Valley have pushed back into a seller’s market, with high-end buyers actively purchasing.
Increased Competition for Sellers
Sellers now face more competition as housing supply grows. While some outer Phoenix suburbs have transitioned from seller’s to balanced or even buyer’s markets, competition has also softened in traditionally hot areas. Homes with deferred maintenance or less-than-ideal presentation are struggling to attract buyers, and even well-maintained properties may face longer market times and potential price adjustments.
If you’re a seller, now is the time to list your property before the holiday season slows down market activity. September and October are critical months to act, as waiting could extend your time on the market by an additional 1-2 weeks.
Looking Ahead: Market Trends to Watch
As we move forward, here are some key trends to keep in mind:
- Lower Mortgage Rates Could Drive Demand: Mortgage rates are expected to decline further, which could drive a surge in buyer activity toward the end of the year and into 2025, particularly in price ranges under $2 million.
- Increased Listings Expected: More sellers are likely to list their homes in the coming months, giving buyers more options to explore. However, competition may increase as more buyers enter the market in early 2025.
- Luxury Market Stability: While economic uncertainty may affect some areas, the luxury market is expected to remain stable, with strong demand in high-demand areas like the Northeast Valley.
Cromford Demand Index
The Cromford Demand Index™ (CDI) represent the demand for homes. Values above 100 indicate higher than normal demand and values below 100 indicate lower than normal demand. “Normal” is defined by the historical data for the market under consideration. A reading of 100 represents balance.
Recent Successes and New Listings
It’s been a busy year with several notable successes. I’ve had the privilege of helping clients in some of Arizona’s most sought-after cities, including Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and Phoenix, with transactions ranging from first-time homebuyers to luxury estate sales.
I’m also excited to announce a few fantastic properties currently on the market, offering great opportunities for buyers. If you or anyone you know is in the market, these homes are worth checking out!
Get In Touch
Whether you’re thinking of buying, selling, or just curious about the latest real estate trends, I’m here to help. Feel free to reach out for personalized advice on your real estate goals.
Wishing you all a fantastic end to the year and continued success in Arizona real estate!
